Padel business plan: model utilisation, revenue and EBITDA correctly

The core formula: courts × hours × days × utilisation × price

A court can only be sold once in each time window. Five courts, 18 opening hours and 30 operating days create 2,700 offered court hours per month.

Utilisation converts capacity into sold hours: 675 hours at 25%, 945 at 35% and 1,215 at 45%. Only then should the realised average price be applied. Free events, discounts and no-shows cannot be counted as full revenue.

Court revenue is the base, not the whole club.

At €42 per hour, those three utilisation levels produce €28,350, €39,690 and €51,030 of monthly court revenue. The Neuötting total model includes further operating revenue and models €352,200, €488,280 and €624,360 annually.

Coaching, leagues, events, rental, retail, drinks and corporate packages need separate volume and pricing logic. A generic percentage does not show whether team, space and demand can deliver the revenue.

• Court booking
  Court booking

  Peak/off-peak price, plans, packages and cancellation.

• Coaching
  Coaching

  Coach capacity, participants, price and revenue share.

• Events & leagues
  Events & leagues

  Frequency, participants, sponsorship and secondary spend.

• Hospitality
  Hospitality

  Average ticket, margin, opening hours and staffing.

• Retail & rental
  Retail & rental

  Inventory, depreciation, purchase cost and frequency.

• Corporate
  Corporate

  Packages, weekdays, acquisition and repeat rate.

Utilisation must be modelled by time window.

A daily average hides the main operating challenge: prime time may sell out while mornings remain empty. A robust model separates weekday morning, afternoon, evening and weekend.

Ramp-up also belongs in the monthly plan. Neuötting uses 12 months. Marketing, beginner courses, open matches and leagues must explain how players are acquired and retained.

Fixed cost creates leverage in both directions.

Rent, core staff, software, insurance and part of energy cost change little in the short term. Additional sold hours can therefore contribute strongly; weak utilisation leaves limited ability to reduce cost immediately.

Neuötting models €17,291 in fixed monthly operating cost. Variable cost, operator fee, maintenance, tax, financing, replacement investment and reserves still need to be added before investor cash can be considered.

Downside, base and upside need one consistent logic.

The Neuötting model uses 25%, 35% and 45% utilisation and produces model EBITDA of €131,853, €262,966 and €394,079 a year. The spread illustrates sensitivity to additional court hours.

These are ambitious project assumptions, not market benchmarks. The relevant question is the utilisation at which cost, reserves and obligations remain covered, including a slower ramp and additional liquidity need.

• Downside
  Downside

  Lower utilisation, slower ramp, cost reserve and no optional revenue.

• Base
  Base

  Evidence-led market assumptions and an operational delivery plan.

• Upside
  Upside

  Only with clear capacity, demand evidence and resources.

From EBITDA to cash flow and possible distributions

Tax, working capital, maintenance, replacement investment and reserves follow EBITDA. Only free and legally distributable cash can be allocated by participation share. MorePadel's quarterly distributions therefore require actual profit and are not guaranteed.

The plan should show investment outflow, opening, ramp and the periods in which distributions could become possible. Cumulative cash flow reveals whether payback comes from operations or a terminal assumption.

Seven questions for every padel business plan

Is court capacity correct? Is utilisation modelled by time and month? Does price match the local market? Are ancillary revenues operationally explained? Does the cost base include all roles and reserves? Is the project fully funded? Can it survive a plausible downside?

Answering these questions does not create certainty. It turns a wish list into a model whose assumptions can later be compared with actual performance.